A few weeks ago I predicted that Harper would suffer little lasting damage from the prorogation debacle. Many challenged this conclusion, pointing to the drop in Conservative support in the immediate aftermath.

I was not claiming that there would be no short term damage. It was a dumb move that caused many soft voters to doubt whether Harper’s apparent re-make over the last year or so is authentic. A number shifted to the Liberals or to undecided in their immediate party preference.

However, it still seems to me unlikely that there will be any permanent gain for the Liberals under current circumstances. Indeed I expect that we will see the Conservatives creep up to around 35 % support and the Liberals drop below 30% among decided voters as we move into the spring and summer. There is a fairly stable equilibrium at around these levels, with some chance of a further slight improvement for the Conservatives rather than for the Liberals.

The reason can be found in the public’s assessment of the Party leaders contained within the recent Ekos poll. One number says it all. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has the approval of only 15% of Canadians. This is hard to believe. It is below that which George Bush Jr. and Richard Nixon had during their very worst days as Presidents. It boggles the mind to try to comprehend how an opposition leader can be held in such low regard. And it is almost impossible to imagine any scenario that could see the Liberals make any real long term gains in support under these circumstances. Indeed the risk is that the longer Ignatieff stays on, the more his numbers will pull down Liberal support generally. It is this continuing eroding of part loyalty because of the disappointment in the Liberal leader that is most likely to turn the tide enough to let Harper prevail again in the next election.

The Liberals appear to be paralyzed. Having so mishandled the choice of leader three times in six years, no one knows what is to be done. A faint hope that Ignatieff can redeem himself is the straw that party insiders offer to loyal supporters. Most are too smart to buy that, but they are powerless. Deep down, most just wish that Ignatieff would do the right thing, sooner rather than later.