Hillary Fails First Big Test

November 4, 2009 in Current Events, federal politics, international relations | Comments (0)

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The August presidential election should have been an important step in securing the future of Afghanistan. With increasing concerns about the Taliban’s success in spreading its insurgency, and doubts about whether the Afghan government is carrying its share of the burden, the election was important in building credibility at home and abroad.

Instead it has thrown wide open a window into the state of affairs in the country and the ability of the west and the US in particular to shepherd the country into a democratic recovery. There have been two big problems over the past few years: the virtual abandonment of the development effort as the US switched its focus to Iraq and the failure of Karzai to build an honest, effective government. To make any real progress on correcting for the first, the US needs to do something about the second.

No-one has ever doubted that Karzai came into power as a result of American policy. Nor is there any doubt that he understands that the US and the west have been essential to his remaining in power. Nevertheless through time he made the fateful decision to secure his position by reducing his dependence on the west and diversifying into old style politics better be-fitting the post Soviet period. He turned to corruption in pursuit of money needed to shore up his position. He worked out deals with old warlords who continue to maintain illegal, heavily armed rogue forces to rule over local populations – all men who could and should be before international tribunals for crimes against humanity. And instead of fighting the drug trade, he haas made alliances with the biggest of the drug dealers. And then he used this whole network of crooks, murderers and drug dealers to secure his re-election and to build the kind of support base he obviously wants over the next five years. The drug trade is to be given government protection and warlords are to be brought directly into his cabinet. The latter was publicly revealed in September by him when he signaled that three of the most notorious of them would be assigned cabinet positions directing three major government departments in his new Cabinet. On the same day Hillary Clinton and the British Foreign Secretary announced that Karzai was being accepted as the re-elected President. Fortunately the UN sponsored election oversight body, in the face of incontrovertible evidence and intense scrutiny, rejected a large number of fraudulent Karzai ballots, taking him below the 50% necessary, and forcing a run-off between him and second place Abdullah.

But Karzai was set once again to use his whole corrupt system, including control over the election machinery, to ensure a win in the second vote to take place November 7. Abdullah refused to go along with this arrangement, withdrew, and the Karzai controlled Election Commission announced Karzai as the winner. Within hours a relieved Clinton and other western leaders, including Harper, embraced Karzai rather than demanding independent management of the election. In so doing they revealed their unwillingness to stand up for a legitimately elected credible government and aligned themselves with a corrupt leader totally incapable of changing his ways. A few weeks ago the US and the other western countries said they had to have a reliable partner leading Afghanistan. They then did nothing to ensure this – even though an honest and capable alternative was prepared to run in a free and fair election and to let the people decide. That is all Abdullah asked. He did not get it.

The failure to ensure this happened is a colossal mistake. All that would have been required is the insistence of the west and Hillary Clinton in particular.

A momentous opportunity to put the Afghan effort back on track has been missed. There is no way that it can be put back on track now. The country has a government that is illegitimate in the eyes of Afghanis and westerners. It is also ineffective, corrupt and controlled by warlords and drug dealers. It will never work.

Hillary just faced her first big test and failed. For those who think she might have made a better President than Obama, the results are now in. Democrats made the right choice. Now they have to hope that their President takes over the file and comes up with a solution. Fast.

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