Hamid Karzai’s main contender in the Afghan election, Abdullah Abdullah, has announced that he will not be running in the election between he and Karzai scheduled for November 7. He has done so for good reason. Karzai has maintained an iron grip over the election machinery. He used that plus other corrupt practices too numerous to mention to steal a win in the first round. Abdullah made it a condition of running this time that the election must meet the “free and fair” standard that the UN and international community has set out for elections everywhere. So long as Karzai has his people running the Afghan Election Commission, that can never be the case.

What will happen next? Abdullah is clearly attempting to force the hand of Karzai, the UN, and the US. But he will not run if there is no change in the oversight and organization of the election. Time is very short. The UN and the US are highly compromised, having throughout the first election and the run up to it ignored Karzai’s blatant corruption. Karzai believes they have no choice but to back him again. They do have a choice – most in Afghanistan would welcome independent management of the election. Karzai knows he is actually very weak without the western support. He cannot govern without it.

Of course there are those who say that Afghanistan should be left to author its own future misfortune. This means leaving Karzai to run another corrupt election and weak and corrupt government dominated by warlords and drug dealers. The west played a very large part in getting Afghanistan into is current mess – we cannot morally now walk away. And many of the international security threats from al-Qaeda would re-appear if we walked away.

So what now? Its really simple. The west must insist that the election be postponed until an acceptable election commission is appointed. The power of appointment should be delegated to a respected neutral party, and the rules set out by a committee working under her in accordance with well established standards. Abdullah will run in an election organized this way. Karzai may still win, but he is more and more looking to be incapable of taking the country forward. The Afghan people must be given a fair chance to send him that message.

It is discouraging to encounter these seeming endless obstacles to making things work in Afghanistan. But we must demand more of our leaders in the west. I was sounding the alarm bell about the election in July and August. So were other observers. But the western diplomatic community continued what has become a pattern there. They stuck with old discredited leader (remember Musharaff in Pakistan) until it is too late. The professional diplomats – conservative, closed minded, and dismissive of anyone not in their insular little circles – spent their time fending off critics and defending the indefensible. They get plenty of help from academics and journalists. Meanwhile the chance to do something to avert a crisis passes, at which time they hunker in and profess defeat by circumstances.

Let’s hope they are ready this time to draw a line in the sand with Karzai. There isn’t much time left.