A US State Department employee, Mr. David Hoh, has resigned, stating in a letter that he has “lost understanding of and confidence in the strategic purposes of the United States’ presence in Afghanistan”.  This has caused quite a stir, getting the attention even of the White House.  However, it is not clear that the White House is hearing the real message.

He said that the insurgency in some parts of Afghanistan arrived only after the US troops did.

Mr Hoh’s position is that the US should be cutting combat troops; providing more support for Pakistan; developing better US communication and propaganda skills to match those of al-Qaeda; and putting more pressure on Afghan President Hamid Karzai to clean up government corruption. 

“We want to have some kind of governance there, and we have some obligation for it not to be a bloodbath,” Mr Hoh said.

Mr. Hoh is absolutely right.  These are the kinds of things that I have been pushing for some time. They are just as relevant to Canada as to the United States.  Unfortunately this advice is falling mostly on the deaf ears of the keepers of conventional wisdoms.

The current combat strategy with the Taliban is the 21^st century equivalent of the US cavalry chasing after the Sioux in the Northwest US frontier.  Nothing was achieved except the needless loss of courageous lives.  In the end the only solution was a settlement.  However, there the comparison ends.  In Afghanistan, in the face of attack the insurgents disappear into the wilderness, just like the Sioux, but they always return, planting bombs and explosives that kill the western forces when they travel back over the same territory.  Peace in the Northwest US only came after treaties were agreed to, followed by the occupation of and the moving of settlers onto the disputed lands.  In Afghanistan that is not an option. 

Only the Afghan people can provide the necessary basis for security, development and good governance.  The hot pursuit of the Taliban by the Canadian, US and British forces in Kandahar and neighbouring provinces, followed only by the return of the soldiers to their safe barracks, is a mad-cap strategy.  So too is the creation of safe “model villages”.  The hearts, minds and confidence of  the people of Aghanistan generally will never be secured this way.  Without that, nothing is gained.

The answers are just as Mr. Hoh suggests.  Listen up, Canada.  The hot pursuit out of secure bases in the south must come to an end.  The insurgent Taliban forces must be ousted from their basis of operation in Pakistan, and any shift of these bases to Afghanistan must be squelched early.  Otherwise the Taliban forces should be left alone unless it is to repel actual attacks on bases or civilian population centres.  The highly successful propaganda and information campaigns of the Taliban and al Queda must be met with equally persuasive responses. Taliban supporters not committed to armed struggle should be won over. A huge injection of aid must be mobilized to build infrastructure and housing, to generate and distribute gas and electricity, to provide health services, and to feed the people, with the jobs going to Afghanis not westerners.  The amounts spent on security for aid projects could then be drastically reduced, with the amounts saved spent on the projects.  The well developed trading, commercial and small business skills of the people must be embraced and markets and trade must be supported to support growth in economic activity.  Jobs have to be created for the huge unemployed and thus poor labour force.  Jobs from aid and economic development are the answer.

Just as physical and trade infrastucture is needed, so too is there a need to build effective government institutions.  Trained and honest police and conflict resolution processes must be supported and rewarded.  Corruption and government by intimidation must stop.  It has been a huge mistake to leave Karzai to pursue his corrupt and violent ways.  Warlords in government are unacceptable, as are large scale drug dealers.  If these continue the west should leave. The west must also be unequivocal in its demand that the November 7 election be free and fair.

Some think none of these things are possible.  If that is true, then it is time for Canada and its partners to leave. Not one more Canadian life should be lost in pursuit of the current losing strategy.

The White House has said a decision on a new strategy for Afghanistan will be made in the coming weeks.  Some like Dick Cheney say the process is taking too long, and all that is needed is more troops.  That is the wrong choice.  The President should take all the time it takes to get it right.  A new strategy is possible. A large majority of the Afghan people want the western presence to continue, doing the kind of things I suggest.  Poll after poll shows this to be true, as does any kind of contact with ordinary Afghanis. 

This is important because the people’s continued support is the most important condition of success and the most important contributor to success.  The rest is simply about strategy, money and commitment. 

It is time that Canada, the US and other countries stopped pretending that the current approach is working.  They need to stop listening to the old failed advice of the established politicians and academic and government advisors, and look to those like Mr. Hoh who have it right. The Afghan project can still succeed, but a whole new strategy and approach is needed. Prime Ministers and Presidents need to open their minds to new advice, to take the unusual risk that goes with change.  They have do pursue a different approach.  Otherwise, failure is certain, with consequences that will not be pretty for anyone.