There is much musing and speculation about what really happened in the Coderre-Cauchon dust up in the  Liberal Party a few days ago.  The conclusion of most observers is that Ignatieff’s senior team in the party screwed up by not being aware of Coderre’s bizarre plan to appoint a candidate in the Outremont  constituency, thereby blocking Cauchon from getting the nomination, that they panicked when it became known, and that Ignatieff in turn misjudged the strength of the reaction of Coderre when at the behest of his Toronto centred staff he reversed Coderre’s decision.

But it isn’t quite that simple.  Certain nuances have been missed about Cauchon and his place in the Liberal orbit.   First, Cauchon is a smart, ambitious, progressive politician on the left wing of the Liberal Party.  This was a stab at those who value those things.  Second,  Cauchon was not part of the Martin crowd – Martin pushed him out of the inner circles when he became the Leader, sending him to the back benches after credible service as a Chretien minister.  He was a Chretien favourite  – he was Mr. Chrétien’s last Quebec lieutenant. He and Denis Coderre have had a long-standing rivalry.  In the Chretien circle Cauchon has been seen as a force for the future.  Third, and not totally unrelated, he is a rock solid Bob Rae supporter and part of the Bob Rae orbit, including having supported Bob Rae for leader.  Blocking his nomination was a direct attack on a Bob Rae stalwart.

The mistake that Coderre made – and it was a big one – was to miss the relative importance of these things and thus to directly try to block one of Bob Rae’s key people.  It is incomprehensible that Coderre did not know the consequences of what he did.  He should know that there is a strong body of supporters of Bob Rae and that Bob Rae is a force to be reckoned with.  When he rejected Cauchon, he should have known that he crossed a line and that it would set off an irreconcilable conflict between he and Rae.  The moment he made the decision, it was inevitable that either he or Bob Rae would have to go.  Bob Rae for one would leave Ignatieff with no choice.  But it seems Coderre didn’t forsee this, and thus badly underestimated  Rae.

Thus he seemed to have believed that he could best Bob Rae in a direct confrontation.  He clearly did not think it was he who would be chopped off at the knees.  He thought Rae could be bullied and would back off.   Coderre is still living in the world and times of Paul Martin and his team, who consistently used bullying and intimidation to get their way with the party.  In that world, if you resisted the bullying and threats, you were pushed off the bus.  Coderre obviously assumed that the same rules apply.  After all the Martin team make no secret of their dislike for Bob Rae.   Ignateiff was and is their man.  Since Ignatieff is a creation of the Martin crowd, Coderre clearly thought the ‘Martin rules’ still apply.

But Bob Rae is not just another Liberal operative who can be bullied and cowed.  No sooner was the word out about Cauchon than he went into action.  He no doubt made it clear that Cauchon was not going to be blocked from being a candidate in that seat.  He would not permit it.  His exact words would have been:  “It’s not going to happen”.   Ignatieff quickly came to appreciate that he meant it, and knew he had to placate Rae or lose him.

It was then that the so-called Toronto crowd was called into action.  Ignatieff needed Coderre’s decision to be reversed and the people around him had to take the fall.  Thus Coderre’s apparent belief it was they, who had not forewarned him of possible trouble ahead, who did him in.  But it was not Ignatieff’s Toronto advisors who forced the reversal on Coderre.  What actually played out was a virtual face off between Coderre and Rae, in which Coderre badly misjudged Rae’s strength and determination. This was in part because Ignatieff had never made it clear that as much as he is indebted to the Martin faction and people in that mold, Bob Rae is much more important.  Ignatieff, bumbling and struggling, more than ever needs Rae.  Coderre was oblivious to all of this.

Bob Rae comes out of this with his head high and his position strengthened.  No one will understimate him after this.  To his credit he has taken on the Martin era winner-take-all manipulation and maneuvering that still infects the Liberal Party.  His success is a straight up victory for the principle of honest dealings and for progressive forces in the Liberal Party.  And perhaps Rae’s challenge to the bad old Martin ways will also finally put paid to the dysfunctional behaviors that Martin made synonymous with politics within the party.   Mr. Coderre, meet Mr. Rae.  The score in the ensuing play after the face off:  Rae 1, Cauchon 1, Ignatieff 0, Coderre 0.