In a little more than 48 hours, or less, we in Canada will know for sure whether we are to have another unnecessary and unwanted federal election.  Fortunately Jack Layton signaled late today, Monday, September 28th, that his party is likely to support the government.

A trumped up case has been constructed stating that the government’s stimulus package is not getting out fast enough.  The Liberal Opposition claims that the infrastructure projects, which are to a large extent implemented by municipalities, could have and should have moved much more quickly in getting shovels in the ground.

The truth is that economists have always known that less then 50% of the actual work on projects could take place in 2009.  The rest must wait until 2010, given the reality of planning, engineering and construction in a harsh winter climate.  This is no to say the planned expenditures for 2010 will have no affect in 2009.  One of the larger impacts of the stimulus spending is that it has shifted expectations, which in turn has had a major impact on asset values including stocks and houses.  These in turn have added to consumer confidence and generally improved expectations.  The stimulus here and in other countries is working, in no small part because it has reversed the downward slide in economic expectations, in turn encouraging investment and spending.  It is also increasing jobs and the production of construction equipment and materials, but not all of that was ever expected to happen as quickly as suggested by Mr. Ignatieff and his party.

A non-confidence vote will be held on the implementation of the stimulus during the Official Opposition’s day in Parliament this week, when a vote will be held on its motion of non-confidence.  This is scheduled for two days after the government tables its update on the stimulus’s implementation.  Assuming the report is tabled in Parliament tomorrow, Tuesday, September 29, the vote will take place on Thursday October 1, 2009,

The Bloc Quebecois will support the Liberals, voting against the government.  It has nothing to lose.  The Conservatives will of course vote for the package although it is not obvious that they would regret losing the vote.  Most indicators suggest that the Conservatives will increase their seats in the House of Commons and perhaps even win a majority in an election this fall.  The Liberals appear to be caught in a trap of their own making, their leader not being able to take responsibility for keeping the party’s powder dry until election conditions are more favourable.  His inflated ego is unable to withstand the invidious comparisons with Dion and the growing perception that he is not up to the job.

The NDP and Jack Layton were thus left to decide whether we have an election.  Voters do not want an election and think correctly that one is unnecessary.  But the media, and particularly columnists, have tried very hard to reduce Layton’s little wiggle room.  They have brutally bullied him over his decision to support the vote on the home improvement tax credit.  They have repeatedly claimed that Parliament is dysfunctional, even though it has passed new bills at a pace of about one per sitting week.  At one time this would have been seen as an excess of Parliamentary fervour.

Therefore Layton was to be given  no choice politically.  The press has already done its best to  make him pay a huge price for voting with the Conservatives, even if it is the right thing to do.  This is a case where the media have seized the agenda.  They are playing it out to fit their short sighted dislike of the two smaller opposition parties and their preoccupation with minor parliamentary events. The game and how it is played out is the full reach of the media’s grasp.

There is no need for an election.  It is unwanted by the wisest of all – the people.  Parliament is working fine, providing a check on the potential excesses of the Conservatives while providing a chance for the party with the largest number of seats to prove itself.  While it involves far more integrity than should be expected, we should all be appreciative that Layton is willing to stand up to the media bullying.  Unfortunately the media will try very hard to make him to pay an electoral price for doing so.  Ignoring the rationale for maintaining Parliament, they will say he did it out of self interest, which is hardly an unexpected thing for a national political party.  But he is also doing something good for the country.  That is no small thing.